Dollar eases before US midterms and RBA: using the economic calendar

The dollar slipped slightly ahead of the US midterm elections, Investing.com reports, as traders turned to a crowded schedule of events. In its Americas FX wrap, investingLive said AI-linked selling overwhelmed a plunge in oil, and its Asia calendar for 3 November listed an expected rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The latest ECB reference rates are from the 2 November fixing, so they show the market before these events. EUR/USD fixed at 1.1216, up 0.39% from 1.1172 on 30 October. AUD/USD fixed at 0.7008, down 0.23%. USD/CAD barely moved at 1.3974. Investing.com reported that the Canadian dollar slipped from a six-week high as falling oil offset a weaker US dollar. For a wider view of the day, see our sister site's report on how AI selling overshadowed the oil drop on US midterm day.

What is the economic calendar?

An economic calendar is a schedule of planned events that can move currencies. It lists data releases, such as manufacturing surveys or jobs reports, and events such as central-bank rate decisions and elections.

A good calendar shows three numbers for each data release:

• Prior: the last reading.
• Forecast (estimate): what economists expect.
• Actual: the number that is published.

The gap between forecast and actual often matters more than the number itself. Markets usually price in, or already reflect, the forecast before the release.

A worked example

Here is part of the 2 November calendar, using figures reported by investingLive.

Now measure the surprises:

1. ISM: 55.5 - 54.5 = +1.0 point above forecast. A positive US surprise.
2. Construction: -1.9 - 0.3 = -2.2 points below forecast. A negative US surprise.
3. Canada PMI: 49.6 - 51.5 = -1.9 points versus the prior month. investingLive says it was the first reading below 50 in 2026.

The US signals point in opposite directions, so the calendar alone gave no clear answer for the dollar.

Next, compare the fixings. AUD/USD went from 0.7024 to 0.7008. That is 0.7024 - 0.7008 = 0.0016, or 16 pips. As a percentage: 0.0016 / 0.7024 = 0.23%. USD/CAD rose from 1.3969 to 1.3974, a 5-pip move. One fixing per day cannot show how each release moved prices hour by hour. It only shows the net result.

The calendar ahead is busier. According to investingLive, the RBA is expected to hike, Apple and Palantir report earnings, and US voters go to the polls. investingLive notes that Democrats need a net gain of three House seats for a majority, while Republicans hold the Senate 53-47.

Why it matters for new traders

• Fewer surprises. Knowing an RBA decision is due explains why the Australian dollar may move sharply at a set time.
• Wider swings around releases. Prices can jump and spreads can widen in the minutes after big news.
• Context for moves. A move like EUR/USD's 44 pips (1.1216 - 1.1172) makes more sense when you check what was scheduled that day.
• Unscheduled news still counts. The US-Iran reports moved markets without appearing on any calendar.

Key terms

• Economic calendar: a schedule of data releases and events that can move markets.
• Forecast: the consensus estimate published before a release.
• Surprise: actual minus forecast.
• PMI: a survey of purchasing managers; above 50 signals growth, below 50 signals contraction.
• Fixing: an official once-a-day reference rate, such as the ECB's, not a live quote.